The U.S. population aged 45-64 declined by 2.68 million from April 2020 to July 2025, according to new Census Bureau estimates reviewed by Axios. The drop represents a 3.2% decrease nationally, from approximately 84 million to 81.3 million residents. The decline occurs as the overall U.S. median age rises to 39.4 and the population aged 65 and older grows by 16.2% over the same period.
The shrinking of the 45-64 cohort comes amid a broader demographic shift highlighted by Gregg Hartney in the Handbook of Issues Enhancing Quality of Life for the Aging, which notes that the United States faces a crisis with its elderly population as the baby-boom generation ages into retirement [1]. Simultaneously, the U.S. birth rate has fallen to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in 2025, according to provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics [2], contributing to the long-term decline of younger cohorts that will eventually replace the 45-64 group.
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