Somalia’s contribution to climate change is almost nonexistent—estimates say it accounts for about 0.08 percent of global emissions. But the country faces devastating consequences of climate change, with average temperatures rising by 1.7 degrees Celsius (over three degrees Fahrenheit) since 1970. From 2020 to 2023, the East Africa region had five failed rainy seasons, an unprecedented drought and climatic episode not seen in 40 years, which led to 70 percent crop loss, three million livestock deaths, and the displacement of about 2.9 million people in Somalia, according to some estimates. Even today, Somalia is in the midst of a drought emergency; there has been no rain since last year, and hundreds of families have moved to find food and water in the Bari region of northern Somalia.
Climate scientists analyzed survey data from the U.N.’s refugee agency across Somalia’s 18 administrative regions from 2016 to 2019, and found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall can have measurable effects on displacement. A one-to-two-degree Celsius rise in the local monthly temperature leads to a tenfold increase in displacement, while a nearly four-inch reduction in monthly rainfall leads to a fourfold increase in the number displaced. People impacted by drought represented the largest number of displaced people within the country.
