The Independent claims in “Vital Atlantic current likely to collapse with catastrophic consequences, scientists warn” that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is significantly more likely to shut down within decades, plunging Europe into extreme winters and triggering global disruption. This is wrong-headed speculation. The article relies heavily on extreme computer model simulations built on high-emissions assumptions, ignoring the observational record of the AMOC, which shows little or no evidence of an imminent collapse.
The article asserts that AMOC “could pass the shutdown tipping point within the next couple of decades,” and that a slowdown of 42 to 58 percent by 2100 is “almost certain to end in collapse.” That strong claim is based solely on modeling exercises, not direct measurements of a system in free fall.
