Like most of the West, America has entered a fertility crisis. The U.S. fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2024, with a languid 53.8 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (15 to 44), which works out to a mere 1.6 children per woman. It takes no math degree to recognize that this birth rate is significantly less than two, which means (native-born) American society is literally, numerically in decline. Worse, the birth rate has been plunging ever since 2007 (just before the Great Recession), and no cause for reversal is in view.
While Malthusians may celebrate, the more prudent will have reason to lament this decline. A falling population does not automatically mean more food for everyone. Rather, it means fewer workers producing, fewer researchers inventing, fewer households living. When the population shrinks, colleges close, neighborhoods empty out, businesses are bankrupt. The bonds holding society together begin to shrivel up, and a smaller population staggers under the infrastructure and social safety net designed for a larger one.
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