When Pakistan warned in April 2025 that attempts to stop or divert its treaty-protected water supplies would constitute an “act of war,” it identified a danger that extends far beyond its rivalry with India. A government that believes another country can control its access to water may eventually conclude that defending its people requires military force.
Future wars will be fought over who controls the water that sustains national economies and human life. Some may begin with deliberate restrictions, while others could emerge from fear that a neighboring government is acquiring the ability to impose them. Understanding that distinction is essential to preventing a dispute over a river from becoming a war across a border.
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