Higher oil prices lead to higher oil production in countries that are able to export oil: “The Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will average a record 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with high crude oil prices and new offshore projects contributing to the increase.” It forecasts “U.S. crude oil production will average 13.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025, in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In the first half of 2026 (1H26), crude oil production averaged 13.7 million b/d, 2% (0.3 million b/d) more than the same period in 2025. Most of this expansion is concentrated in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico” and the Gulf of Mexico.
Brazil‘s daily oil production averaged 4 to 4.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, an increase of about 13% to 19% compared to the same months in 2025.
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