The price of tungsten, a dense metal critical for both military and industrial applications, has surged 557% since February 2025, according to the APT European benchmark tracked by Fastmarkets [2]. The rally, which has outpaced gains in gold and copper, is driven by a severe supply squeeze following Chinese export restrictions and a sharp increase in demand linked to military conflicts. Analysts describe the current tungsten market as historically tight, with buyers exhausting existing stockpiles [1]. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified focus on the metal’s strategic applications, accelerating price gains in recent weeks.
Record Rally Driven by Supply Squeeze and Geopolitics
Prices reached $2,250 per metric ton unit in March 2026, a more than fivefold increase since Beijing added certain tungsten products to its export control list in February 2025 [2]. The restrictions were implemented amid an escalating trade dispute with the United States. Chinese shipments of restricted tungsten products fell by approximately 40% last year, according to Project Blue, a London-based research firm specializing in critical minerals [1]. George Heppel, vice president of commodity research with BMO Capital Markets, stated that in his 12-year career, he had never seen a market as tight as tungsten currently is, aside from the lithium market in 2021. He noted a key difference, however, saying, “This isn’t like lithium, where there was a huge pipeline of projects that could come online” [1]. The squeeze underscores Western governments’ efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, a leverage point Beijing has used in past disputes [4].
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