President Trump has spent recent weeks endorsing primary challengers to Republican senators who crossed him, a political strategy that may feel satisfying but carries a steep cost. If Justice Clarence Thomas or Justice Samuel Alito steps down, Trump could find himself short of the votes he needs to confirm a replacement.
The arithmetic is straightforward. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. A Supreme Court confirmation requires 50 votes, with Vice President JD Vance available to break a tie. That means Trump can lose three Republican senators and still get a nominee through. Four defections, and the nomination fails.
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