The anti-tariff priesthood has delivered yet another paper purporting to expose the folly of Trump’s trade strategy. Exhibit A is the latest National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study from Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal, which tells us that Trump’s 2025 tariffs pushed U.S. duties from 2.4 percent to 9.6 percent, that about 90 percent of those tariffs were passed through into prices paid by U.S. importers, and that the net welfare effect ranged from a 0.13 percent loss of GDP to a 0.10 percent gain.
That is the tell. When your headline conclusion runs from minus to plus depending on assumptions the authors themselves admit are unresolved, you do not have a verdict. You have a shrug dressed up as science.
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