Russia is repeating in Mali the same strategic errors the Soviets made in Afghanistan. After the 2011 NATO-backed collapse of Qaddafi, armed Tuareg fighters flooded back into northern Mali. This triggered a cascade of separatist rebellion, jihadist expansion, a military coup, and near-total state collapse by 2013.
France stabilized the situation through Operation Serval and the broader Operation Barkhane. Russia, through the private military company Wagner and later through the Kremlin’s Africa Corps, systematically dismantled that security architecture through disinformation, political manipulation, and backing of the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
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