For decades, every two years, on the morning of the first Tuesday of November, I would make an official, professional prediction about the likely outcome of the elections. That was my job—or at least part of it—as a Washington analyst for the financial services industry. It says something terribly unfortunate about our society that institutional investors have a profound vested interest in who controls the levers of power in Washington, but that’s just the way it is, and that’s a story for another day.
In general, I was pretty good at calling elections, even when I made difficult or contrarian calls. I knew George W. Bush would win reelection in 2004, for example, even after pollsters like John Zogby had concluded that the race was “John Kerry’s to lose.” If I recall correctly, I called every state that year and every Senate race, many of which challenged conventional wisdom. Likewise, in 2016, I predicted Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
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