Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday – with Brent crude dropping 1.5% to $103.72 and WTI declining 2.2% to $90.62 – as Middle Eastern crude exports recovered to 15.5 million barrels per day, the highest since the conflict began seven months ago.
Saudi Arabia spearheaded the recovery by more than doubling its crude exports from 2.45 million to roughly 5.4 million barrels per day in September, temporarily easing supply crunch fears.
Despite the price drop, Standard Chartered raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $92.00 and WTI to $86.00 – citing stalled diplomacy, regional escalation beyond Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and a persistent deterioration in Middle East security.
A structural shift from efficiency to resilience is underway, with governments and producers building larger inventories and spare capacity, supporting a higher long-term oil price floor and keeping prices elevated into 2027.
Diesel prices have hit an all-time high, prompting pressure for a U.S. diesel export ban, though alternatives like voluntary export reductions are being considered to avoid damaging Gulf Coast refining and global product markets.
Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, Sept. 29, reversing recent gains as a recovery in crude exports from Middle Eastern producers collided with escalating uncertainty over the trajectory of the Iran conflict.
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