The recent killings of Iranian nuclear scientists in U.S. and Israeli strikes have raised new concerns about what happens next, especially if instability inside Iran worsens. While the immediate impact has been to disrupt parts of the country’s nuclear program, some experts warn that the longer-term risks could shift in more complicated ways.
One concern is what happens to Iran’s nuclear materials and expertise if the government loses control or faces serious internal strain. According to Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association, the risk of nuclear material falling into the wrong hands remains low for now. Non-state actors would still face major technical and logistical barriers, particularly when it comes to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels or turning it into something usable for a nuclear weapon.
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