Voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday to decide control of the House and Senate in what are expected to be close contests across the country. While the in-power party typically loses ground in the midterms, Republicans hope to buck historical trends and retain control of both chambers.Recent polling, however, suggests their odds are much stronger in the Senate than the House, given only a handful of races are likely to determine whether they retain the majority.
But Republicans are still the underdogs in most of the competitive races.
Should current RealClearPolitics polling averages hold, for example, the upper chamber would wind up with 53 Democrats (51 Democrats plus two independents who caucus with them) and 47 Republicans, marking a complete reversal of the chamber’s current makeup. Here are some of the main races to watch.
Maine
Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins is fighting for her political life and will face former state Senate President Troy Jackson in her bid for another six years in office. Collins has a long history of outperforming the polls and currently averages suggest the race is close.
The Maine contest was complicated by the abrupt withdrawal of Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who ended his campaign as controversies around his personal conduct threatened to derail the party’s hopes of a victory in November. He was quickly replaced with Jackson.
New Hampshire
Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is the current favorite to win the state’s open Senate seat, but the GOP has coalesced around former Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., including both the establishment and conservative wings of the party.
Pappas currently leads by an average 8 points and a Republican upset in that contest could signal a long night to determine control of either chamber.
Michigan
Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers, a former congressman, appeared to be gaining momentum heading into Election Day, with Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., breaking ranks to back him over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, to whom she lost the party primary earlier this year.
Whether Stevens’s defection will move voters remains to be seen, but her decision has been met with near-universal condemnation from Democratic lawmakers. El-Sayed boasted an average 4.9% lead on Monday.
Ohio
Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, is seeking a full term after GOP Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him to fill the vacancy left by now-Vice President JD Vance. He is facing off against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024. Brown has an average 2.6% lead.
Potentially complicating Husted’s race is a scandal surrounding the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, who attracted backlash for running an ad that featured Democratic opponent Amy Acton’s mother, who stood by her husband when he was accused of raping Acton as a child.
North Carolina
The Old North State is hosting a contest to replace the retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, D-N.C., is the heavy favorite to defeat GOP nominee Michael Whatley, who formerly chaired the state party.
Cooper holds an average 10.8% lead and most pollsters have moved the state out of the toss-up category.
South Carolina
Gov. Henry McMaster, R-S.C., tapped Darline Graham to complete the term of her late brother after Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., died after winning the GOP nomination for reelection. Graham subsequently declared her intent to seek a full term and defeated Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., in a special primary.
Norman has declined to campaign with Graham and polling has shown her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, within striking distance.
Georgia
The Peach State has become a major battleground in both presidential and midterm contests. After backing Trump in 2016, it flipped to President Joe Biden in 2020, before backing Trump again in 2024. The state has had two Democratic senators since the 2020 elections.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is seeking reelection and faces Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., who is trailing him by an average of 8.2%.
Florida
While the Sunshine State has moved firmly into the Republican camp at the national level, the state’s Democratic Party still has some life in it. Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., is seeking a full term after Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., appointed her to replace now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Moody faces progressive candidate Angie Nixon, who pulled off an upset in the Democratic Primary by defeating Alex Vindman, the lead whistleblower in Trump’s first impeachment trial. Moody holds an average 6.3% lead.
Texas
The Lone Star State is unexpectedly competitive this cycle, with Democratic nominee James Talarico consistently posting small polling leads over Republican nominee Ken Paxton.
Paxton triumphed in the GOP primary over Sen. Jon Cornyn, R-Texas, who has taken several public jabs at Paxton since his loss. While Cornyn placed first in the initial round of the primary, he could not avoid a runoff.
But Paxton offered to drop out entirely if Cornyn could secure passage of the SAVE America Act, a marquis voter ID bill that has languished in the Senate. Cornyn could not do so and Trump subsequently backed Paxton in the runoff. Talarico holds an average 2.5% lead.
Iowa
In the Hawkeye State, Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, hopes to succeed the retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa. But Democrats have put forward a strong candidate in Josh Turek, who is within 1% of Hinson.
The state has skewed Republican since 2016, despite its former battleground status. But Trump’s tariffs and other economic woes appear to be fueling frustration with Republican candidates in this cycle.
Kansas
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, faces a close contest in the typically red state against Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, who holds an average 3.6% lead.
While the state has typically been a Republican bastion, its voters have been known to buck conservative causes at the state-level. Gov. Laura Kelly, D-Kans., for instance, has held on for two terms, and voters shot down a 2022 referendum that would have let the legislature restrict abortion access.
Nebraska
Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., faces independent candidate Dan Osborn, who previously lost to Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., in 2024. There is no Democratic nominee on the ballot. Ricketts currently leads by an average 3.7%.
Minnesota
The North Star State has been a stalwartly Democratic state for decades and was the only state that did not back President Ronald Reagan for reelection in 1984. But signs of its left-wing bastion status cracking have emerged since Trump came within 2% of winning it in 2016.
The state has been at the center of several controversies this year alone, including a major immigration crackdown in Minneapolis and revelations of large-scale public funds fraud linked to the Somali expat community there. Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., opted against seeking reelection amid the fallout. Republicans have found an unusually strong candidate for Senate in Michelle Tafoya, who trails Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan by an average 5.4%.
Alaska
Sen. Dan Sullivan’s, R-Alaska, reelection bid represents perhaps one of the most unusual contests of the cycle. While he is facing off against former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, the state has a ranked-choice voting system and another candidate named “Dan Sullivan” is on the ballot.
Peltola won a statewide special election in 2022, but lost to Rep. Nick Begich, R-Alaska, in 2024. Recent reporting has suggested that her campaign recruited the second “Dan Sullivan” to act as a spoiler candidate in the race. The contest has become the subject of several investigations and legal disputes over the matter.
Peltola maintains a 1.0% average lead headed into the contest.
Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent at Just the News. Follow him on X.
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