When the US-Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, immediate concerns centered on oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz, but the real danger was never confined to crude oil, according to an analysis published by Antiwar.com. The crisis has evolved into a broader energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial shock that is becoming a structural drag on the global economy, analyst Dan Steinbock wrote on June 11, 2026 [1]. International organizations including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have warned that the consequences could extend through 2027 [1].
The analysis projects global growth near 2.8–3.1% through 2027, with Brent crude averaging roughly $85–100 per barrel under a baseline scenario, according to Steinbock, who is founder of the Difference Group [1]. Even if military hostilities ease, energy systems, shipping networks and commodity supply chains will require many months — and in some cases years — to normalize, the report stated [1].
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