EU leaders now preaching ‘strategic autonomy,’ as future remains tied to unpredictable Putin

“Strategic autonomy” has been an increasingly frequent buzz phrase among European Union leaders, guiding member states to increase defense spending, double down on support for Ukraine, and stay out of the Israel and U.S.-led conflict with Iran. Now the concept is being put to the test by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats against the Baltic States. 
In recent days, Putin said that membership in NATO “will not protect” Baltic states – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia – that may be aiding Ukraine by hosting its military drones, something Russia accuses Latvia of doing. All three countries are members of the European Union that border Russian territory. 
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – a former German defense minister – was quick to condemn the Russian comments, calling them “unacceptable” and promising that “Europe will respond.” 
How far Europe can go to protect a member state under attack, however, remains unclear, especially after President Donald Trump questioned whether the U.S. would come to the aid of a NATO ally under attack.
The question comes amid worries not only about the future of NATO but also about potential instability in Russia as speculation increases that Putin’s more than 25-year tenure as Russia’s leader may be entering its final phase.
Von der Leyen has repeatedly said the European Union must “learn the language of power” in an increasingly dangerous and unstable world. And uncertainty about Putin’s health and durability have increased the urgency of that learning curve.The perception is that the 73-year-old Putin’s grip on power has been weakened by the long, drawn-out war with Ukraine, now in its fifth year, and by growing questions about Russia’s long-term economic and demographic stability. 
Media has also speculated that the Putin could be in poor health, and Ilya Remeslo, a one-time pro-Kremlin lawyer who has become a Putin critic, warned of the possibility of “palace coup” later this year or in early 2027.
Putin has given no indication he might consider stepping down, and Russia analysts point out that past predictions about his political demise – and failing health – have proved inaccurate. 
But European officials nonetheless appear to be preparing not only for some kind of prolonged standoff with Russia, but also for the possibility that the eventual end of Putin’s rule could create a period of even greater instability. “Russia finds itself at an impasse with no obvious plans or hopes for getting out,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Stanovaya and other analysts warn that situation is particularly dangerous. 
“Succession crises are among the most dangerous moments in authoritarian systems,” warns Yale historian and author Timothy Snyder. 

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