Elevated gas prices and competitive races in red-leaning states like South Carolina, Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska have made for a tough midterm environment for Republicans. However, the grim headlines for Republicans overlook how thin the margins are in most toss-up races, leaving the GOP a real path to keeping the Senate.
The RealClearPolitics 2026 Senate map has eight toss-up states, and Republicans need to win only four of them to keep control of the chamber. Democrats lead in the RCP Average in every one of those races except Kansas, where the candidates are tied. Many of those polling leads, however, are just one or two points, well within the range where the polls could miss, and the race could go either way.
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