Iran is bleeding. The U.S. naval blockade is doing what years of sanctions could never achieve—it has done profound damage to the Iranian economy by cutting off its access to $300 million to $500 million a day in hard currency. Don’t be fooled by Iran’s recent “September surprise”—Iraqi militias striking a Saudi oil pipeline, Houthi fighters seizing islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and missiles and drones threatening Red Sea shipping. These attacks reflect a desperate Iranian regime that is running out of money and time.
Since the U.S. reinstated the oil blockade in mid-July, no Iranian crude cargoes have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz to China, and as of September 1, Iran had gone roughly seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports—the longest such stretch on record. Iranian oil that does get loaded onto tankers is piling up in storage and cannot get out of the Arabian Gulf.
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