Trump gains high ground in row with Senate as old guard exits

President Donald Trump appears well positioned to break the old guard of Senate Republicans in the growing row over legislative priorities – as key allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune either retire or possibly lose the primaries.For months, the Senate has faced considerable pressure from Trump and his allies to pass the Save America Act, a marquis voter ID bill, a proposition that Thune and the senior conference leadership have rejected. Thune has also kept Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, whom Trump wants removed because she has not allowed key parts of the president’s agenda to pass through so-called “reconciliation” – the chamber’s expedited process essential for spending- and budget-related bills. 
Though Trump has sought to foster cooperation with the Senate, his patience appears to have hit its limits in recent weeks and the White House has all but declared war on the upper chamber, wading into primaries to defeat key Thune allies and ramping up the public pressure on the chamber to fall in line.
The president has long struggled to whip Senate Republicans, the majority of whom have held office since before his 2016 presidential run. Over his career, however, he has typically tried to foster good relations with Senate lawmakers and been hesitant to call for their ouster outright. Not anymore.
Opening salvos
In the Louisiana and Texas GOP Senate primaries, Trump positioned himself squarely at odds with Thune, a South Dakota Republican, by endorsing primary challengers to long-serving incumbents and allies of the majority leader.
In Louisiana, Trump managed to successfully oust Sen. Bill Cassidy earlier this month. Cassidy was one of several Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. He lost his primary after placing third against Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow, R-La., and state Treasurer John Fleming.
In Texas, Trump has endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, one of the most senior Republican leaders. Polling suggests Paxton could win the Tuesday runoff by as much as 20 points.
Though he managed to place first in the initial primary, Cornyn could not avoid a runoff against Paxton. Without Rep. Wesley Hunt in the race, Paxton has gained a sizable lead over his incumbent opponent. Trump initially declared that he would make an endorsement in the runoff and ask the non-recipient to drop out.
Many observers inferred that Trump likely planned to back Cornyn, though that endorsement did not materialize. 
Instead, Paxton offered to drop out if Cornyn, a senior leader of the conference, could secure passage of the SAVE act, the voter ID bill that is one of Trump’s legislative priorities. Cornyn was not able to do so, and Trump ultimately issued an endorsement of Paxton, which prompted outrage from Senate leaders.
Isolating Thune
The retirement of four pre-2016 Republicans and the potential ouster of two more will likely shift the balance of power in the Senate conference decisively.
Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, a former Senate majority leader, is not seeking reelection, with Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., likely to replace him. In addition, Sens. Thom Tillis, North Carolina; Joni Ernst, Iowa; and Steve Daines, Montana, are retiring.
Should Cornyn lose, the Republican conference is all but guaranteed to be more pro-Trump come January 2027. Assuming all remaining incumbents win reelection, the number of pre-2016 Senate Republicans will drop from 28 to 22, but could fall further in the event of a GOP rout in which Democrats knock off GOP Sens. Susan Collins, Maine; Dan Sullivan, Alaska; and Pete Ricketts, Nebraska.
Of the Republicans who assumed office after the 2016 election or later, only Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, is expected to face a competitive race.
In a bloodbath scenario, in which the GOP loses every competitive Senate race, pre-2016 Republicans would be reduced to 19 of 49 members of the conference. In a best case scenario for the Republicans and the old guard, pre-2016 Republicans would number 23 out of 55, if Cornyn survives. 
In an unlikely scenario in which only pre-2016 incumbents survive and the GOP wins none of the other competitive races, the pre-2016 GOP would amount to 23 out of 51 senators and still be in the minority.
In other words, it is a near-impossibility that Republicans elected before 2016 will be a majority of the conference after the midterms. That could spell disaster for Thune, who would lose two of his top lieutenants and face a majority of his conference likely to be more closely aligned with Trump’s legislative priorities than his.
The swamp strikes back
Senate leadership isn’t taking the president’s interventions lying down, and Thune has already postponed a vote on ICE and Border Patrol funding over the Trump DOJ’s creation of an “anti-weaponization fund” to compensate Trump allies who faced political persecution under the Biden DOJ in an apparent rebuke of the president.
Retiring and ousted senators, moreover, have already begun making protest votes and breaking with the party on their way out. Cassidy, for example, broke ranks to vote with Democrats on a war powers resolution, shortly after losing his primary.
Trump appears aware that irate Senate moderates could wreak havoc in the chamber for the rest of the year, and he appears willing to accept that outcome in the name of a better Republican upper chamber in the future. Referring to Tillis on Friday, Trump said, “He can have all the fun he wants for a few months, with some of his RINO friends, screwing the Republican Party. In the end, it will only get bigger, and better, and stronger, than ever before!!!”
What Trump actually wants
At present, Trump’s top legislative priorities include the Save act and the reconciliation bill to fund ICE and the Border Patrol. The latter item originated as a way to end the record-breaking shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.
Though ICE and Border Patrol received funding through the end of Trump’s term through the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, the Democrats were able to keep additional funding for those agencies out of the normal appropriations bill, and Republicans have sought to use the reconciliation process to approve the funding without Democratic support.
Much of Trump’s public pressure on Thune has been advocating for filibuster reform or the firing of the Senate parliamentarian, who reviews what legislative items may pass through the reconciliation process.
But those positions are largely a means to the greater end of passing his key priorities, which Trump made clear in a message to the Senate on Friday, saying, “Stop playing games and PASS THE SAVE AMERICA ACT!”
Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent for Just the News. Follow him on X.

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