When President Trump first struck Iran over a month ago, I took a “wait and see” approach. I wasn’t supportive of the foreign intervention, as it seemed unwise and reckless. But there was a possibility the blowback could be minimal. Trump had previously killed Qasem Soleimani and bombed Iran with hardly any consequences. History could repeat itself once again with the Khamenei assassination.
It’s clear now that this war was a grievous mistake. We did not achieve regime change, nor did we even get a more amenable leader to deal with Iran. The Islamic Republic isn’t going to give up its missiles or nuclear program. While Iran has lost many of its leaders and military installations, it’s still able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and strike critical infrastructure throughout the Middle East. With these advantages, the Islamic Republic has upended the global economy and world oil supply. It’s more likely America and its allies will make serious concessions to open the strait than it is for Iran to meet Trump’s initial demands.
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