For decades, South Asia’s security logic has been grounded on land: the Line of Control in Kashmir, disputed borders, and crises that almost invariably began on land. Recent developments in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, however, suggest that the true center of gravity in the regional balance of power is gradually shifting toward the maritime domain. What is unfolding today in these waters is not a momentary display of force, but rather a quiet yet fundamental shift in the region’s deterrence architecture. India’s tests of the sea-based K-4 ballistic missile, with an approximate range of 3,500 km, conducted from Arihant-class submarines, alongside the sustained presence of Chinese intelligence and research vessels in the northern Indian Ocean, may appear, when viewed in isolation, as technical or even routine developments. However, putting these signs together paints a picture of South Asia entering a multi-layered and multi-domain nuclear deterrence phase.
The Indian Ocean: A Complex Space of Deterrence and Competition
As a vital strategic expanse, the Indian Ocean possesses a distinctive feature: not only are multiple actors present within it, but no single power is fully capable of establishing a stable order and binding rules. Unlike Europe, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and institutional regulations have shaped a relatively structured security environment, or East Asia, where frameworks such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and various regional agreements have helped entrench certain norms, the Indian Ocean lacks strong institutional mechanisms to manage competition and prevent confrontation. The Middle East is openly unstable, yet the Indian Ocean lies on the border between order and disorder.
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