
The EIA Thinks OPEC Can Pump More Than Anyone Expected
The U.S. Energy Information Administration quietly rewrote a key assumption about the global oil market this week: OPEC can produce more oil than previously thought.
Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com
In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA updated how it defines and estimates OPEC crude oil production capacity. The result was a material upward revision. The agency now estimates OPEC’s effective production capacity was higher by about 220,000 barrels per day in 2024, 370,000 bpd in 2025, and 310,000 bpd in 2026 compared with its earlier assessments.
The change didn’t come from new drilling or surprise barrels. It came from a rethink of what “capacity” actually means.

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