Influence of Trump looms over Texas primaries, even without endorsement

Texans will head to the polls Tuesday to vote in their state’s primary election. And while President Donald Trump declined to make an official endorsement in the Lone Star state’s hottest race – the GOP Senate primary – his mere presence 1,500 miles away in Washington, looms large. The race pits incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against Rep. Wesley Hunt and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. 
The latest polling shows a very tight race between Paxton and Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, with Hunt in third. The contest appears headed for a May 26 runoff, considering no candidate is polling near 50%+1 to win outright.
The most recent and prominent poll is from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (released Sunday and surveying likely GOP primary voters) has Paxton at 40%, Cornyn at 36% and Hunt at 17%. The remainder, polling at 7-8%, are undecided/other. 
Though Paxton has a 4-point lead over Cornyn, the poll’s margin of error is 4.1%, which means the contest is effectively a dead heat. 
The poll also shows Cornyn leads among early voters (38% to 34%), but Paxton has a stronger edge among likely Election Day voters (44% to 32%). Analysts expect the split and Hunt’s vote share to force a runoff between Paxton and Cornyn.
Cornyn has been accused by Trump allies such as Paxton of being a RINO (Republican in name only) due to his willingness to compromise with Senate Democrats, though he voted to acquit Trump in both of the president’s first-term Senate impeachment trials and has aligned with him on votes 99.3% of the time.
Paxton is viewed as the MAGA (Make America Great Again, Trump’s slogan) candidate, though Trump has not officially endorsed him. He has demonstrated strong support for Trump, notably by filing a lawsuit in 2020 against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, alleging unconstitutional changes to their election laws that skewed the results.
In the state’s Senate Democratic primary, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is running in a fiercely contested and sometimes racially charged contest against state Rep. James Talarico that features volatile polling. 
Recent surveys show mixed results, with Crockett holding double-digit leads in some (like 56%-44% in UT/Texas Politics Project polling) while Talarico edges her narrowly in others (52%-47% in Emerson College), with the primary outcome hinging on turnout among key demographics like black voters (strongly for Crockett) versus white and Hispanic voters (favoring Talarico more.)
Governor
Incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a record fourth term (potentially fifth overall, but this is his fourth election). He faces several challengers but is heavily favored to win outright or dominate, with strong fundraising and establishment support. Challengers include figures like R.F. “Bob” Achgill, Pete “Doc” Chambers, and others in a crowded but low-competition field.
The Democratic primary hosts a large field, but state Rep. Gina Hinojosa leads in recent polls (e.g., 37-60% in various surveys from UT Tyler, Blueprint, YouGov/UT), often with double-digit leads over others and a good chance to avoid a runoff.
Lieutenant Governor 
In the Republican primary, incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (who holds what is often called the most powerful office in Texas) seeks a fourth term. The state’s lieutenant governor presides over the state Senate and influences legislation heavily.
Patrick faces a few challengers, including Perla Muñoz Hopkins and Timothy Mabry, but is strongly positioned to win easily.
Attorney General
With Paxton running for Senate, his attorney general post is open, and the race for it is competitive. 
Four Republicans are vying: Rep. Chip Roy, often seen as a front-runner with strong conservative/MAGA backing, state Sens. Joan Huffman and Mayes Middleton, and Aaron Reitz (former assistant attorney general. The race will likely head to a runoff if no one tops 50%. 
There are three candidates competing in the Democratic primary for attorney general. The race is one of the hottest in the state, considering its attorney general handles such major legal issues as elections, abortion law and suits against the federal government.
U.S. House Races
Several congressional districts have competitive primaries, especially post-redistricting. District 33 (San Antonio area) sees four Republicans competing for an open or challenged seat. 
Other districts like TX-18 (Houston, where Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green faced redistricting overlap), TX-23, TX-34, TX-35, and others have intra-party battles. Incumbents like Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX-02) face conservative challengers (e.g., state Rep. Steve Toth).
If no candidate gets greater than 50% in any primary (very likely in Senate GOP, AG GOP, some others), runoffs will be May 26, 2026. Early voting has been strong with a major focus on GOP turnout given the party’s dominance. Many local races are Republican-only.
The most talked about race is GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales’. He is fighting calls for his resignation following the suicide of a female staffer with whom he allegedly had an affair. 
Gonzales no longer holds an endorsement from the president. While Trump has not endorsed an alternative, other Republican lawmakers have come out in support of his challenger, Brandon Herrera. 
Other Notable Statewide Races
Comptroller of Public Accounts, Agriculture Commissioner, Land commissioner, Railroad commissioner (energy-focused), and others are up for election, but they tend to be less spotlighted unless there’s an incumbent challenge or scandal. Many are incumbent Republicans with limited primary opposition.

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