It seems impossible that a man like Tom Steyer could have a realistic chance at being one of the two top finishers in California’s June 2 jungle primary. But Steyer, like the other seven Democrats and two Republicans that are running viable campaigns in the crowded race, doesn’t have to appeal to a very large percentage of voters to come out in first or second place. He’s up against several politicians with durable constituencies, splitting the vote so thoroughly that it is conceivable that the top performer could win with only around 20 percent of the vote.
In this unusual situation, two things will matter more than they already do: money and a competent campaign. Steyer has enough money to go toe-to-toe with any other candidate. And he is running a very, very effective campaign. In 2010, Meg Whitman proved that money alone won’t buy a gubernatorial election. As a moderate Republican woman, Whitman checked all the boxes GOP consultants insisted might induce a majority of voters to elect her as California’s next governor. Instead, Whitman managed to squander $177 million on a campaign that bought her a whopping 40.1 percent of the vote. This is preposterously inept. In 2022, the GOP’s Brian Dahle faced Newsom in the general election. Given no chance to win, Dahle only raised $2.5 million yet managed to attract 40.8 percent of the vote.
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