In the RealClearPoliticspolling average, the Republican candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, are in the top two spots, each with more than 13% support. Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell comes in third with an even 13%. Former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire Tom Steyer are considered the other top contenders, but an increasing number of California Democrats are coalescing around Swalwell, who just shot up in an Emerson College poll released on March 11. The survey showed 17% of voters support the representative, four points ahead of Hilton and six ahead of Bianco. But 39% of independents remain undecided.
If only one Republican qualifies for the general election, he would probably be a prohibitive underdog against any Democratic opponent, considering the huge gap in voter registration. If a Democrat is leading as the primary nears, that person might try to indirectly boost Hilton or Bianco into second place, most likely by tying the contender to President Donald Trump to increase the candidate’s standing among the GOP electorate. Nudging a Republican into second place could protect the Democratic frontrunner from having to duke it out with a party member in November, making the road to a win a bit easier – if it even worked. It helped Democrat Adam Schiff secure a US Senate seat two years ago, but the tactic is difficult to execute, especially with non-leading candidates carving up a fifth of the vote.
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