Like most of the developed world, Italy is having fewer children. But unlike most of its peers, the European country may no longer have the demographic and economic shock absorbers needed to survive the trend.The fertility rate in Italy this year dropped below 1.2 for the first time, far beneath the rate of 2.1 required to maintain a country’s population. The U.S., Canada, parts of Asia, and most of the rest of Europe face similar trends, though up until now controlled immigration, low emigration, economic productivity, and strong labor-force participation have helped cushion the impact. But not in Italy.
For most of modern history, Italy – with its tradition of large families – had a bigger population than France, and the two were roughly equal in the late 1990s. Today, France’s population is significantly larger (67 million compared to 59 million) and by 2100, demographic models predict France’s population will be nearly double Italy’s (69 million compared to 36 million).
The latest data shows that the fertility rate in Italy was 1.18 children per woman last year. That, combined with increased longevity due to strong preventative health care, and a large number of young Italians moving abroad due to high unemployment, pushed the average age for an Italian to 48.5 years – the most extreme of any big country in Europe and the second highest among major world countries, behind only Japan (49.9 years).
In comparison, the fertility rate in the U.S. last year was 1.60, an all-time low but still higher than in Italy in any year since 1980. The average age for an American is 38.8, nearly a decade younger than in Italy.
According to Maria Rita Testa, a demographer with LUISS University in Rome, the ripple effect caused by falling fertility rates and aging populations is wide.
“The biggest problem isn’t related to any specific economic area,” Testa told Just the News. “The biggest problem is that it tears away at the social fabric of a country.
“When there are fewer children, people become more materialistic, more hedonistic, more focused on careers, entertainment, travel.
“There’s less altruism, public policy becomes less forward looking. The economy is weakened because there are fewer consumers and fewer workers, and because as workers age they’re less efficient and less innovative. Tax revenue declines, and pensions become less manageable.”
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has called Italy’s demographic decline a “national emergency.” She has introduced tax breaks, baby bonuses and has proposed gradually increasing parental leave.
Meloni’s supporters say the measures are a long-overdue acknowledgment of the problem. But her critics are in two camps: those who say the government’s moves are far too modest to impact long-term trends, and those who say they are reminiscent of pro-natalist campaigns of the 1920s and 1930s under Italian Fascist leader Benito Mussolini.
In the U.S., President Donald Trump, in an effort to increase the country’s fertility rate, has proposed “baby bonuses” to would-be parents and more recently a plan to increase access to in vitro fertilization treatment.
Meanwhile, Italy’s experience is increasingly cited as a cautionary tale for the industrialized world, illustrating the quickness with which low fertility rates can be transformed into economic problems.
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