CBO warns: U.S. debt to hit record 120% of GDP by 2036 amid rising deficits
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects federal debt will skyrocket to 120% of GDP by 2036—far exceeding historical highs—due to rising deficits driven by Social Security, Medicare and interest payments.
While tariffs may generate $3 trillion in revenue over a decade, deficits are still forecast to rise from 5.8% of GDP in 2026 to 6.7% by 2036, well above Treasury’s 3% target.
Net interest payments are expected to double to $2.1 trillion (4.6% of GDP) by 2036, crowding out critical investments in infrastructure and education.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismisses CBO projections, insisting growth could erase debt, while fiscal watchdogs warn the report is too optimistic and urge immediate action.
With debt projected to hit 175% of GDP within 30 years, the CBO warns the fiscal trajectory is unsustainable, yet past attempts (spending caps, efficiency cuts) have failed to curb deficits meaningfully.
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